Description

Most participants in prediction markets are not trading probability. They are reacting to narratives, emotions, and crowd momentum.

The Mispricing Game explains why Kalshi NBA contracts are repeatedly mispriced—and how disciplined traders can extract systematic edge from those errors without relying on picks, hype, or intuition. Rather than focusing on outcomes, this book reveals the structural forces that distort prices: favorite bias, time value blindness, information latency, and predictable crowd behavior.

Readers learn how to identify mispricing windows, build rules-based execution protocols, and design position architecture that protects capital while capturing expected value across a full season of markets. The emphasis is on operating a repeatable system that performs under pressure, not chasing short-term results.

Grounded in Kalshi NBA contracts yet broadly applicable, the framework extends to any environment where crowds systematically misjudge risk.